There'll be a SB this time next year

Sunday, February 06 2011

One year from now, the game will go on. This article was written by Bob Kravitz and appeared in the Indianapolis Star.
Read my lips:

Indianapolis will get its 2012 Super Bowl.

How do I know this?

Actually, I don't.

But in this particular labor war, with the collective bargaining agreement lapsing March 3 and the owners threatening to lock out the players, both sides have way too much to lose. They know they can't kill the golden goose. They know their game is too important and too popular to let it vanish for very long.

Yes, there will be a lockout.

Yes, it will last a long time and likely compress the 2011 regular season.

In the end, though, there will be an agreement. In the end, there will be an Indianapolis Super Bowl. Because the alternative is too grisly to consider.

"I'm very confident we'll have our game, and we'll keep preparing with the idea the game will be played either February 5th or 12th," said Mark Miles, chairman of the 2012 Indianapolis Host Committee Board.

Miles, along with board CEO Allison Melangton and others, attended NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell's annual State of the NFL news conference Friday, during which the impending labor war was Issue One.

"If something doesn't get done by March 3rd, I think the lockout is going to go on for quite some time," Miles said. "But it doesn't change anything in terms of our preparation."

Goodell addressed the question of the Indianapolis Super Bowl.

"The message to our friends in Indianapolis is to continue their planning," he said. "We believe we're going to be playing there in the Super Bowl. We believe it's going to be a good community for us to be there. It takes a lot of work to have these events, and I'm confident all of that planning will be done in the best possible way.

"Our focus is in trying to be done and getting it done without any disruptions, whether it be the Super Bowl or the preseason or the regular season."

Still, there are the what-ifs.

What if the lockout wipes out the entire season and cancels the Indy Super Bowl?

Then it's 2015 for Indianapolis. The city moves to the back of the host-city line. The game is in New Orleans and New York/New Jersey the next two years.

What if the lockout drags on for a terribly long time and begins to endanger the Super Bowl?

Then the host committee rolls out its contingency plans and calls sponsors, businesses and others who are preparing for the 2012 game.

I asked Miles, how long would the lockout have to go before you get seriously worried?

"I'd say late fall, maybe late October," he said. "At that point, if there's still not a deal, we'd look at a set of adjustments, what commitments can be made on a contingency basis. And we expect to stay in touch with donors, suppliers, with all the businesses and the entire community on a regular basis."

The loss of the Super Bowl would be momentarily devastating to the city, both financially and psychologically. But it would be an opportunity deferred, not lost altogether, with Indianapolis getting the 2015 game.

Could a lockout postpone the Indy Super Bowl?

Clearly, it could. While the NFL never has lost an entire season, it has suffered two labor stoppages that affected the 1982 and 1987 seasons. In 1994, Major League Baseball players went on strike, and the World Series was canceled. And the National Hockey League lost the entire 2004-05 season because of a lockout.

This is no small or simple conflict: The owners fundamentally want to change the way the league does business. The players do not.

"Absolutely, it can happen, and if I'm in Indianapolis, I'm definitely worried," said Ryan Clark, a Steelers safety and the team's player representative. "The lockout is real. I don't see a way that this gets resolved in a short period of time, not with the two sides so far apart on so many issues. This could go on for quite a while."

Keep in mind, though, in any negotiation, nothing significant gets done before it absolutely has to. And while the March 3 deadline will severely alter the way the league and its teams do business in the near future, there will remain a decided lack of urgency to forge a deal before August or even September.

In the end, it won't matter what kind of regular season we have, whether it's a full year or, more likely, a compressed schedule; it won't impact the Indianapolis Super Bowl. For the host city, the money is still green. The game will still sell out. The fans will still flock Downtown. The area still will get massive exposure.

After the shortened 1982 and 1987 seasons, the Super Bowls in Pasadena and San Diego were typically glitzy affairs, with no diminution of fervor or attendance.

If sanity reigns, this agreement will get done, eventually, and Indy will have its Super Bowl. In the meantime, the host committee will keep preparing.

And holding its breath.